Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at DTR Regional @ CM Dunedin
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1316
· range 1316–1316
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1182
Q3 1403
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
